Week 4 Preview
Welcome to the fourth week of the rugby tipping service and the final week of the free trial, the service has gone even better than I could have imagined generating a massive 48.56 Points of profit in just 3 weeks, this was agonisingly close to being over 80 points had Wasps held on for 2 more minutes last Sunday.
This week we turn our attention to European action, Europe’s premier competition is the Champions Cup and it’s this tournament I will primarily focus on as the action is of higher quality and all entrants treat it with the prestige it deserves. The lesser Challenge Cup can often see teams name changed sides as the tournament is nowhere near as meaningful or hotly contested so I will need to be a lot more cautious when dealing with that competition.
Preview Section: A home fixture has often been a huge advantage in European Competition and I will keep that heavily in mind when assessing the week’s fixtures. It is important for two reasons, firstly it makes teams playing at home much more likely to win their games even when bookmakers have them as underdogs and secondly the top 4 sides from the Pools receive Quarter Final ties at home thus making every point valuable for teams whether they have already qualified from the Pool or not.
The difficulty when assessing the action this week is that quite a few teams are already eliminated from the competition meaning they field weakened sides thus throwing a great deal of uncertainty on matches that otherwise would be quite clear. Therefore in the following tips I have avoided heavy stakes where I feel games could be affected by team selection and tried my best to use any uncertainty to our advantage with small stakes larger odds plays.
Bath vs Harlequins: This is one of the games where if both sides were at full strength I would happily pick Bath to win and include it in multi bets but with both sides having no chance of progressing I expect huge changes to both sides so have no real confidence picking either side to win. What that does though is open up an opportunity to pick one side to lead at half time and the other to win at full time at big odds so I will risk a point on either side doing that.
Recommended Bet: 1 Point Bath Half Time Harlequins Full Time at 7/1 – Skybet
Recommended Bet: 1 Point Harlequins Half Time Bath Full Time at 7/1 – William Hill, Skybet or Boylesports
Glasgow vs Exeter: I expect this to be the closest contest of the weekend and I was hoping that Glasgow would be a bigger underdog and I would use the handicap of between 5 and 7 points to leverage that combined with home advantage in our favour. However the bookies have it pegged as an extremely tight contest with Glasgow as only 2 point underdogs which I don’t feel is enough cover to back the hosts. What I will do though is play a couple of points on one side leading at half time and the other at full time and because I feel the game will be so tight it could be a draw at either half time or full time I will cover those options off with a point on both.
Recommended Bet: 2 Points Glasgow Half Time Exeter Full Time at 5/1 – William Hill
Recommended Bet: 2 Points Exeter Half Time Glasgow Full Time at 8/1 – William Hill
Recommended Bet: 1 Point Half Time Draw at 10/1 – William Hill
Recommended Bet: 1 Point Full Time Draw at 28/1 - Boylesports
Gloucester vs Montpellier: There are 3 teams this week playing at home who have motivation to win and crucially should win; these are Clermont, Gloucester and Racing so I will combine them in a treble paying close to even money that provides the back bone for this week’s tips. Of the 3, the team who should win most comfortably is Gloucester as they need a bonus point victory to have maximal chance of progression to the Quarter Finals. On the other hand Montpellier are as good as eliminated so whether they are motivated for their trip to the South West of England is open to question. With Gloucester requiring the bonus point they should score close to 30 points and that should be enough to cover the 11.5 point handicap so I will be staking 7 points on that and having a point on Montpellier to lead at half time with Gloucester winning at full time in case the visitors start strongly.
Recommended Bet: 7 Points Gloucester -11.5 points 2 Way Match Handicap at 10/11 – Bet365
Recommended Bet: 1 Point Montpellier Half Time Gloucester Full Time at 11/2 – William Hill
Recommended Bet: 15 Points TREBLE Clermont To Beat Ulster (1/3), Gloucester To Beat Montpellier (1/8), Racing 92 To Beat Munster (3/10) – Treble Pays 0.94/1 (1.94 Decimal) at Betfair Sportsbook or 9/10 (1.9 Decimal) at Bet365
Racing 92 vs Munster: Racing face Munster Sunday in a clash that will be integral to both sides qualification. Racing will want to secure their place at the top of the Pool before travelling to face Saracens next weekend whilst Munster will want as many points as they can from this clash before their final group game next weekend against Ospreys. The sides drew 21 all in Ireland earlier in the Pool and I expect home advantage to be pivotal in a Racing victory hence adding them to the treble listed above. However it should be a hotly contested game and has the potential to be very close so I will risk a couple of points on Munster leading at half time with Racing winning at full time and one point on Racing leading at half time and Munster winning at full time as a way of covering the 15 point treble should it look like winning with 40 minutes to go.
Recommended Bet: 2 Points Munster Half Time Racing Full Time at 11/2 – Paddy Power
Recommended Bet: 1 Point Racing Half Time Munster Full Time at 14/1 – Bet365